The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2024-05-22
Another slow news day
Bonds
Bonds are on plan retracing in the first part of a wave ii. Initial support at 116^17 which also corresponds to the top of the daily moving averages.
Crude Oil
CL was soft on Tuesday as it attempts to establish a higher low to that of May 15th. I’m calling this a [B] of ii that is late in development. Support at 77.30 and 76.90. A signal that [B] is complete is a recovery of 77.80.
Dollar Index
DX is trying to climb out of the hole and set a wave ‘ii or b’ low. Would be bulls need DX over 104.90 for confirmation of a reversal up.
Euro
Euro has been moving sideways for about a week in what could be a low degree fourth which has support at 1.0850 and 1.0820.
Gold
As I mentioned previously, I’m moving wave [III] over to the right and thus gold should be late in wave [III]. Dropping down to the intraday chart, I’m allowing for another push up while above 2406.50.
S&P 500 Futures
So far, we have had two relatively boring days as the S&P 500 waits for news. We have FOMC minutes on Wednesday afternoon Nvidia earnings after the bell. For form, it is tricky as I don’t know if wave [III] is complete or needs a minor new high. I do think a wave [IV] consolidation is due if it hasn’t already started.
