The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2024-05-15
Excitement over expected Fed cuts
Bonds
Bonds on plan as they pushed up in [V] of i. Should be late in the development of wave i up from the April low. Bears need ZB under 117^31 for first confirmation of a retrace.
Crude Oil
CL broke initial support and tested the lower support from the intraday chart which was essentially a retest of the low this morning after which it popped up hard. I’m leaving this as a [B] wave low and now in [C] of ii up. I wouldn’t mind a minor stall against 79.45 prior to pushing higher next week.
Dollar Index
DX broke support today a pushed down to just above the next target for a [C] of ii at 103.90.
Euro
Well, at least this is clearing up the pattern for me. I’m marking this down as a possible wave (III) in a developing [C] of ii. Support for a wave (IV) is at 1.0850 and 1.0820.
Gold
I’m not sure I’m dialed into the form, but the resistance and supports should be good.
S&P 500 Futures
Traders are relieved for the moment that it looks like the Fed will lower rates later this year and thus bid the S&P 500 all day long. S&P 500 futures pushed through the next target for a third at 5284.00 and is nearing the 1.618 extension at 5253. Notice that the intraday chart put in a 9-5 exhaustion signal overnight and that the daily chart will print a ‘9’ on the close of Thursday’s candle. Net will shop for a fade on Thursday in the 5353-55 range or at 5361.50.
