The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2024-05-14
S&P 500 recovers from the early morning spike down
Bonds
ZB is attempting to finally put in the last leg up in what should be the first impulse up from the April low.
Crude Oil
Crude moved lower in the morning and closed the day just under the low from yesterday but still holding a higher low. This looks like a good spot for CL to push up in the next step of wave ii and is up in the overnight.
Dollar Index
DX was soft today and is leaning hard on the 104.98 support. Not sure it is going to hold, but a cycle low is due tomorrow.
Euro
Euro is up today but now up against a target for a possible wave ii at 1.0847. The very aggressive trader may try to fade against this resistance, but the safer tactic would be to wait for confirmation of a turn like dropping back under 1.0800.
Gold
As I mentioned before, I’m prepared for gold to be pretty choppy and not do much for at least several weeks. The next cycle inflection is at the end of the week.
S&P 500 Futures
I gave up on a new high a new high in wave [III] prematurely as the market began to recover shortly after I posted the midday update. If you take a look at the intraday chart, I have made a note on it pointing out that the expected wave [IV] should be somewhat comparable to the prior wave [II] in price and time. I do this to make the point that it is highly unlikely that we have seen the wave [IV] correction as of yet.
