The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2024-06-25

Nvidia bounces back to pull up the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500

Bonds

Bonds still stuck going sideways is not a positive for my previous idea of a punch to a new high followed by a retrace, but instead argues for either a drop lower or more sideways while the daily moving averages catch up.

Waiting for the daily moving averages to catch up?

If lower, probably not by much

Crude Oil

CL made the slightest of new swing highs today before slipping back to the lower end of the range from yesterday. Still think it best to allow for higher while above 80.35 but does look late in the advance from the early June low.

Late in [C] of ii

Could still try for 82.30 to 82.50

Dollar Index

Little real movement in DX. Expect a slow grind higher.

Expect a grind up

Euro

I’ve been allowing for a better bounce in Euro but so far hasn’t been interested in pushing above 1.0785. I might have to move wave (V) of [I] to the right if we get a fresh swing low.

Bounce has been weak

Allowing for a bounce before much longer

Gold

Gold is running out of runway for a higher low. As I type, GC is putting pressure on the 2322.05 support.

Bulls need to get to work

Nearly at the limit for a higher low

S&P 500 Futures

Today was a little tricky. I was expecting a new low under that of yesterday around 5504.50 or even slightly lower but only managed a retest of the low before rising in the afternoon. I probably have to consider wave (IV) complete and now in (V) up. Minor resistance at 5545.75 but likely to grind over that in the morning and try for 5567.00.

Late in wave [V]

Early in (V) of [V]