The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2024-06-24
Nvidia drags NQ and ES lower
Bonds
ZB has spent the las week sideways under 120^11. I have gone back and forth as to whether to treat this consolidation as a low degree fourth or a low degree two. I lean to fourth with a minor new swing high to complete [I] for a i-ii-[I]-[II] type count.
Crude Oil
Late last week I mentioned that CL could extend higher while 80.35 and that has taken place as crude pushed up from it today. Next target zone is 82.30 to 82.50.
Dollar Index
DX slipped back a bit on Monday but nothing to worry about as long as it stays above 104.90.
Euro
I’m allowing for Euro to bounce for a few days to form a lower high. First overhead resistance at 1.0808.
Gold
It is certainly a negative that gold fell back under the daily moving averages but I’m not ready to give up on higher just yet. Bulls need gold to hold 2335.30 or 2322.05 and push above 2353.55 as evidence that wave (III) is getting started.
S&P 500 Futures
Today went about how I expected as I thought one of the best opportunities for bears in the short-term was to attempt to push down after opex. I’m assuming this is some part of wave (IV) in development. I say ‘some part’ as this may indeed be the deepest part of the correction, it can continue sideways prior to eventually pushing up in (V) of [V]. Short term supports at 5504.50 and 5490.25.
