The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2024-06-17

A CNBC headline gives the green light to buy (We will see for how long)

Bonds

I’m not certain that I’m dialed into the intraday count but do think retraces are buys as the bigger picture is a little clearer and likely still relatively early in a wave iii up.

Rising in iii

Retraces are probably shallow

Crude Oil

The move up from the early June low in crude looks more like a five and thus should only be [A] of ii instead of all of ii since a ii should be a three-wave structure. I think it best to allow for a sideways to lower choppy [B] to form soon before finishing off ii in a couple of weeks.

Late in [A] of ii

A [B] wave retrace due

Dollar Index

Not much movement in DX today but it is holding above 104.90 and hence still think higher is the path of least resistance.

Best to assume higher

Euro

Euro bounced a bit today but I favor lower in a low degree third while under 1.0787 and 1.0810. I suppose the alternate way to count this is that there is a completed impulse down from June 3rd and this bounce is the early part of a wave [II] bounce.

Lean to lower

Bias to at least one more wave down if not two

Gold

I want to give gold bulls the benefit of the doubt, but it is critical that bulls push GC up over 2350.40 and 2366.15 to confirm a push up in [V].

Bulls need over the moving averages

Bulls need to push GC over 2350.40

S&P 500 Futures

A news story from CNBC triggered mini melt-up intraday today. I’m penciling this in as a wave (III) late in development. As long as 5530.50 holds as support, best to assume higher to press for 5587.50 to 5590.25.

Allowing for higher

Late in wave (III) of [V]