The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2024-06-03
Jolts job openings and factory orders on Tuesday morning
Bonds
ZB opened above the daily moving averages and sprinted up on what should be the early stages of wave iii up. Could see a bit of a stall against 117^23 or 118^03 to form a wave [II] before breaking higher.
Crude Oil
The move down in crude today has forced me to promote my alternate count to the primary, where this move down is [V] of i of (c) in development. First major support for [V] is at 73.30 followed by 71.80. On an intraday chart, watch 72.45 or 72.10. From a practical standpoint, I would use these targets to manage an existing short. Probably a little too aggressive to use these areas for a stab at a long till some evidence of a bounce starting like recovery of 74.60.
Dollar Index
DX pushed lower on Monday after failing to establish a base above 104.90 last week. Aggressive, but the dominant cycle is suggesting a low on Tuesday so not crazy to fish for a long against 103.90.
Euro
The minor new swing high in Euro over that of the May high could qualify as a wave ii candidate. The current swing high is a little short of targets but does align with the intraday cycle high. Bears begin to take back control under 1.0886 and more fully under 1.0800.
Gold
Gold is slipping lower after running into overhead resistance at 2370.65 and the daily moving averages. There is a group of supports at 2325.90 and 2322.75 that look attractive.
S&P 500 Futures
S&P 500 futures were up early in the morning on Monday but were being held back by 5308.00. I was looking to see if bulls would be able to push through 5308.00 in the morning, but they couldn’t pull it off. Instead, bears did a decent job of pushing lower as they pushed the index lower to test the 62% retracement value before an afternoon rally kicked in. I have expressed some doubt about the low today being the wave (II) low as it doesn’t look complex enough. That worry looks justified in that futures are down in the early hours of Tuesday as I type. I think the market wants to have a look at the 10am economic numbers before deciding on if the wave (II) low is set. I’m ambivalent to a higher low against 5259.00 or a retest or minor new low under the Monday low, either is fine with me.
