The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2024-07-23
Can the S&P 500 hold 5483?
Bonds
ZB looks to be consolidating and holding 118^27 for the moment. Imagine a bounce in a ‘(B) of [II]’ is in development with targets of 119^19 to 119^27.
Crude Oil
Pretty happy with how CL continues to follow the plan. Yes, there was a wave [III] extension but went to the right place and bounced. Now allowing for a complex correction for a [IV]. CL might travel sideways to allow the 20 period EMA to catch up with price.
Dollar Index
As I remain pretty bullish medium term in DX, I can’t really complain about DX rising but it is too early to get excited while under 104.63 about a reversal up.
Euro
Euro may have dropped enough to put in a small impulse down though I’m not overly confident in the short-term count. The RSI on the intraday chart has positive divergence present so it is best to assume a bounce.
Gold
Gold is bouncing a little from the daily moving averages, but I would like to see an eventual drop under to complete the first impulse down.
S&P 500 Futures
I’d say the S&P 500 was behaving well enough through most of Tuesday but started to have troubles late in the day and really fell apart after the day session close when Tesla and Alphabet earnings hit. Now we probably have to assume that there is a new low under that of last week before the next bounce attempt.
