The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2024-07-10

Equity indices decided to get a jump on the CPI

Bonds

Unlike equities, bonds did have a dull day hugging the daily moving average. A minor retracement to at least 117^29 would be nice in the next day or two prior to breaking higher.

Hugging the moving average

Prefer a little deeper for a retrace

Crude Oil

I’ve decided to promote the alternate count to primary, which puts wave (IV) at the low today and working on (V) of [C] of y of (b) up. Nice move up today to test initial resistance at 82.65-82.70. Next hurdle to overcome is 83.80.

Allowing for one more high

Nice move up from a possible (IV)

Dollar Index

Little movement in DX today as it waits for a peek at the CPI on Thursday morning.

Working on a wave [II] low?

Euro

I’m tentatively assuming that wave [II] has been set but need under 1.0817 for confirmation. Until then, I can’t rule out a retest of 1.0887 or 1.0903.

A wave [II] candidate

RSI in a good position for a lower high

Gold

Gold is on plan so far as it is above the daily moving averages. Next step is to push above the last swing high and push up over 2415.80.

On plan so far

2415.80 the next number to beat

S&P 500 Futures

S&P 500 futures pushed higher in the morning then leapt ahead in the afternoon. I’m marking this down as a low degree third with a possible target at 5686.00. While above 5672.25, the wave III may extend to 5700.25.

Late in [V] of v of (c) of [b]

Near a wave III high