The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2024-07-31
Next up on a busy week, Apple, Amazon, and Intel earnings
Bonds
ZB pressed up past prior swing highs today in the expected wave [III]. The only nit I have is that it hasn’t had even a minor retrace though I suppose I shouldn’t expect much as this is potentially a middle third. Provided ZB remains above 120^27, we should expect an attempt to reach 122^10 or 123^17.
Crude Oil
Geopolitical news certainly helped push CL up in the expected first leg of wave ii. Watch for a retrace in [B] over the next couple of days.
Dollar Index
With the Yen up on the BOJ rate decision, not shocking that DX fell away from 104.63. I think this will be a relatively short-lived phenomenon but may last long enough for DX to test the 103.16 support.
Euro
Not much movement in Euro but it is starting to bounce in what should be the first leg of a three-wave bounce to form a lower high.
Gold
I had thought that this would only be the first wave of a wave [II] in gold, but it is a three-wave bounce and in the deep retrace zones so could be all of [II]. Probably too aggressive to short prior to a drop under 2485.40, even better under 2458.60.
S&P 500 Futures
The S&P 500 behaved well enough today. It isn’t my favorite type of day type that starts with such a strong move in the overnight but there was enough follow-through to not be much of a problem. I think the first target is to fill the overhead gap around 5999.25 or just past at 5603.75. Past that area, the next zone to pay attention to is 5627.75 to 5638.50.
