The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2024-07-08
Bonds
ZB has pushed back on top of the daily moving averages it what should be the early stages of wave ‘iii of (c)’. I’m penciling this in as late in wave ‘[I] of iii’ with next short-term resistance at 119^09 and 120^11.
Crude Oil
Crude was under some pressure from what could be an aggressive ‘[C] of y of (b)’ candidate last week. I hesitate to pound the table for a short until CL trades under 81.50 as there is still enough ambiguity in the count where this could be a wave (IV) in development.
Dollar Index
DX has been under pressure for just over a week but note that we are now at a projected cycle low and down to the 62% retrace of the last swing.
Euro
Euro is now up into the typical retrace zone for a wave [II] as the RSI on the daily chart is near an overbought condition. Will see if the cycles kick in a begin to push Euro down away from this zone. Would be bears need Euro under 1.0806 to feel good about a reversal.
Gold
I think I was wrong to put the end of [IV] at the June 7th low, instead I think it should be at the June 26th low which makes the move up to July 5th a wave (I) and the drop today either all or part of wave (II). If GC can push up over 2377.60, odds favor wave (III) up has started.
S&P 500 Futures
S&P 500 is on plan for higher though I’m getting less confident in higher. Next overhead targets on the daily chart are at 5650.25 and 5677.00. For timing, Friday looks interesting.
