The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2024-07-15
Retail sales and bank earnings on Tuesday
Bonds
ZB slipped lower on Monday but held above the daily moving averages. I’m assuming a press higher to push past 119^30 resistance in an effort to reach 121^04 or 121^25.
Crude Oil
As I mentioned on the weekly chart, I wouldn’t say higher is required, but the case could be made for one more high if the current intraday drop is a correction. Bulls have a chance, but they need to hold CL above 80.50.
Dollar Index
I’m being patient with a corrective formation in DX. So far, at a projected cycle low and holding above the 103.90 support. A good sign for the bullish case is recovery or 104.84 in the next day or two.
Euro
The high in Euro today is essentially a double top and the limit for the low degree wave two idea. Euro trading under 1.0924 is positive for the bearish forecast but bears need Euro to drop under 1.0862 to really feel good about a reversal.
Gold
Gold did well on Monday extending higher toward the next targets at 2453.20 and 2479.30. Should be headed higher while above 2416.20.
S&P 500 Futures
I’m trying to do my best to avoid getting prematurely bearish but I’m not confident in higher at this point. Yes, it can extend while above 5663.00 but under that, I’m not really interested in stepping in with a long trade. There is data and bank earnings in the morning on Tuesday which probably will set the tone for the day. Even if 5663.00 holds, the market may just chop instead of trending higher.
