The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2024-07-29
The slow news day of the week
Bonds
As of late last week, I was contemplating that the low degree two on the intraday bond chart was complete, but I now think it best to allow ZB to follow the cycle down for a day or two since that will coincide with the FOMC meeting.
Crude Oil
Crude remains on plan as it has dropped to yet another swing low in what should be very late in ‘[V] of i’. Next targets to keep an eye on at 75.07 and 74.36. If CL can get above 76.40, I’m inclined to think that a wave two bounce has started.
Dollar Index
Been expecting an eventual thrust up over 104.63 in DX which made an effort to do so today but fell just short.
Euro
The Euro might have an impulse down from the July 17th high and thus due for a corrective bounce to form a lower high. Initial resistance on a bounce is at 1.0884 but imagine it finds a way higher to at least 1.0922.
Gold
Gold seems to be working on the early phases of a wave [II] bounce.
S&P 500 Futures
The S&P 500 performed about like how one would expect today on a slow news day ahead of earnings and economic news, a probe of the recent range but closing near the open. I can’t rule out a little more retrace on Tuesday morning to test 5470.50 prior to working higher. Aside from a possible test of lower support early, I like a move up later in the day in anticipation of Microsoft earnings after the bell.
