The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2024-07-24
GDP and Durable Goods on Thursday morning
Bonds
ZB now has an acceptable form for a wave [II] down from the July 17th high. First confirmation of a reversal up is pushing over 118^21, next past 119^07.
Crude Oil
CL remains on plan as it appears to still be in a low degree fourth wave prior to a final thrust down to complete the first impulse down from the July 5th high. Very short-term, CL could retest the 77.83 level or the 20 period EMA on the 240-minute chart.
Dollar Index
DX was unable to push past 104.63 and now dropping away from it. Possible that we get a test of lower support near the end of the month. Keeping an eye on 103.70 and 103.16.
Euro
Not clear that the first impulse down from the July 17th high is complete and thus could still get a retest of 1.0851 or 1.0831 before a wave two bounce.
Gold
Gold working on well as it fell from the 2432.10 resistance and dropped under the daily moving averages. I think gold is now late in the first impulse down, but could extend a bit more while under 2380.83. Over 2380.83 would probably mark the end of the first impulse down and the start of a wave two bounce.
S&P 500 Futures
A rough day in the S&P 500 on Wednesday as big tech pulled other issues down with it. That said, bulls still have a chance to push the S&P 500 to new swing highs in August or September if they get to work now. So far, the drop in the S&P 500 looks more like a three-wave formation than a five which implies this is a correction in the overall rising trend. S&P 500 futures fell a bit lower in the early hours of Thursday morning to test the next intraday support at 5451.00 and trying to push up from it. First step in reversing up is pushing up over 5477.75 followed by 5493.00. The key level for bulls to get over is 5520.00.
