The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2024-07-18
Another down day in the S&P 500
Bonds
Bonds slipped lower on Thursday to just above support at 119^08 and the daily moving averages. I still think this is a small degree consolidation prior to punching higher.
Crude Oil
CL ran up to a target for a (C) of [II] and has started to move down from it thus we may have the lower high set in crude oil. The next confirmation of a reversal is a drop under 79.90.
Dollar Index
DX pushed lower to test the 103.70 target before firming up. This could be the ‘y of (ii or b) low that I have been looking for but probably need DX above 104.63 for confirmation.
Euro
The daily chart has some evidence supporting a possible ‘y of (ii or b)’ being set as the RSI is turning down from an overbought zone while the Wave 95 9-5 study is only one off of an ideal ‘9’. Bears probably need Euro under 1.0880 for confirmation of a reversal lower.
Gold
Gold moved lower on Thursday and has continued lower in the overnight to reach the next possible retrace target at 2422.25. This is a little deeper than normal for a fourth but hasn’t broken any rules thus far. We will see if gold can follow the intraday cycle up which is at a low now.
S&P 500 Futures
Has the high been set in the S&P 500? I don’t know. I’m inclined to give bulls at least a chance for a deep bounce. For wave count, I have marked the bearish count in red and the bullish count in green on the daily chart. Friday is option expiration, which is usually a relatively dull day, but volatility has picked up over the last couple of days. I’m assuming a choppy bounce with a reduced range.
