The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2024-08-07
Equities give back early gains
Bonds
Bonds slipped under the typical fourth wave retrace value at 123^17 but not really a problem as there is still quite a bit of distance before there would be overlap with wave one. I wonder if ZB is letting the daily moving averages catch up which are now around 121^01.
Crude Oil
Crude oil is staying on plan as it pushed up on Wednesday to resistance at 76.10. I’m penciling this in as an [A] wave completed and now expect a [B] wave retrace. I’ve sketched the [B] wave in as a higher low, but it need not be as a new swing low would be valid.
Dollar Index
DX not moving much as it hugs the number to beat at 103.16.
Euro
Euro has slipped lower away from a wave (ii) candidate high. Would be bears need Euro to drop under 1.0911 to confirm a reversal lower.
Gold
Gold is consolidating under the daily moving averages. Bears need to come back in relatively soon or else will have to allow the wave [II] to become more complex and thus have a deep retrace up that could retest 2486.75.
S&P 500 Futures
We saw the S&P 500 up early, but it ran out of steam just under the overhead gap fill which gave bears the signal they were looking for to press their hand. Now we are at a decision point where we find out if bulls can pull the rabbit out of the hat one more time and form a higher low or if bears finally form a clean five waves down from the high. I don’t have a strong opinion as I can argue both sides.
