The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2024-08-20
A minor consolidation thus far waiting for a catalyst
Bonds
Bonds are finally breaking up out of the minor consolidation and thus should be aiming for a new swing high around 127^07 or 128^23.
Crude Oil
CL drifted lower to test intraday and daily support levels prior to a bounce that was unable to push over intraday resistance at 74.35. I favor CL firming up and holding either 72.50 or 71.80 and taking another shot at recovering 74.35.
Dollar Index
Another day of softness in DX as it presses for the next step down at 101.27. The RSI is in the oversold position and the dominant cycle suggests a cycle low on August 21st. As much as I am medium term bullish on DX, it is probably wise to wait for proof of a reversal like recovery of 102.19.
Euro
Euro pushed past 1.1102 to the next target range of 1.1141-47. The Wave 59 9-5 study has exhaustion signal on both the intraday and daily chart.
Gold
There was a brief poke to a new high in gold before falling back toward support at 2537.80. I think it dangerous to be long at this point but probably too aggressive to attempt to fade this rise until GC falls back under 2537.80.
S&P 500 Futures
The S&P 500 stalled today but didn’t drop very much. I’d like to see the consolidation continue and ideally test support around 5594.00 or lower around 5555.50 prior to pushing up to a new high.
