The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2024-08-15
Bulls liked the morning numbers
Bonds
ZB fell away from the resistance zone on the intraday chart, but I don’t see it as a problem for higher prices in ZB later. As I mentioned before, the decline thus far could use more complexity, and this suffices. A recovery of 123^17 would be a positive for higher.
Crude Oil
CL bounced up from the 77.00 support today but just like bonds, I suspect that the anticipated wave (IV) in CL needs to be a little more complex and thus could easily see a retest of 77.00 or even lower, say 75.90 prior to a real reversal up.
Dollar Index
DX working to recover 103.16 but not quite there yet.
Euro
The drop down from the August 14th high has a three wave look at this and thus assume it was just a correction and that a new swing high is on deck over the next few days.
Gold
Gold retraced from 2514.10 and thus far has tested the 50% retrace of the swing from August 7th and August 14th. GC could travel sideways a bit longer but be on the lookout for a press above 2500 as evidence that a wave ‘(V) of [V]’ up has started.
S&P 500 Futures
S&P 500 futures lifted off of the morning numbers and really didn’t look back. Not my favorite type of day as most of the gain happens early with a relatively modest follow-through up the rest of the day. I can’t be excited about buying up here but too aggressive to sell without some proof of a reversal. Thus far, I’ve been treating this move as ‘[A] of v’ of the ending diagonal. I suppose an alternative is that [A] was back on August 6th, [B] on the 7th, and now up in ‘(III) of [C] of v’ of the ending diagonal. A somewhat technical point as both possibilities have a similar look.
