The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2024-08-29
PCE on Friday morning
Bonds
ZB leaked lower to finally come into contact with the daily moving averages. Now to see if ZB will firm up and push higher.
Crude Oil
CL on plan Thursday with the advance up from 73.75. Crude should push past 76.75 toward 78.60.
Dollar Index
DX firmed up on Thursday and is now pushing up against resistance at 101.50. As I have mentioned before, a case can be made for another push down to a minor low to complete the pattern.
Euro
Euro dropped under the typical wave IV target at 1.1096 but hasn’t created any overlap with wave I so nothing really wrong so far but I do have to add the alternate count which would have the first impulse down completed today. Net, think there should be a move up in an attempt to make a new swing high, but we need to be alert to the possibility that it fails and only makes a lower high.
Gold
Not much to say about gold as it moves sideways. Still giving bulls a chance for a minor new high to complete the form.
S&P 500 Futures
An interesting day as the S&P 500 came through with the expected move up from the overnight low though I have to say I didn’t expect the depth of afternoon drop. I still think this all looks like a wave (IV) that should be due for a break to a new swing high. As long as there isn’t anything shocking in the economic data Friday morning, I expect a drift higher though we should expect traders to leave early for the three-day weekend and thus the bulk of the move is probably done in the morning.
