The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2024-08-14
Crude pulling back
Bonds
ZB has drifted up to the resistance region of 124^11 to 124^23. Over 124^23 would be a clear signal that wave [V] up is in progress. A retrace from this point would not be an immediate problem for bulls but would mean they need to defend 123^117. I know I am hedging here more than usual, the reason for that is that the form down from the proposed [III] to the possible [IV] is rather simplistic in form so I’m hesitant to pound the table for wave [IV] being complete. I don’t think the price in [IV] needs to be lower, but it would look better with another swing down.
Crude Oil
I was wrong about higher in a (III) as CL fell under 78.05 today. Now we are looking at a relatively deep (IV) with initial support at 77.00 and 75.90 under that if needed.
Dollar Index
This retest of 102.19 may be good enough to complete the pattern. Will see if DX can recover 103.16 as a first sign of a reversal up.
Euro
Euro pushed to a new swing high as expected. A push for the next target of 1.1086 is still possible while 1.1020 holds as support.
Gold
Gold dropped today in what appears to be a wave (IV). Now to see if GC can recover and base above 2493.05 as first evidence that wave (V) up has started.
S&P 500 Futures
There was some volatility early today but 5465 was recovered fairly quickly. Not marked on the chart, the next minor step up is at 5507 if we need a spot between 5465.00 and 5543.00. I think we are fairly late in the development of [A] and thus am not confident in higher, but it is certainly possible.
