The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2024-08-13

Next up CPI

Bonds

ZB trying to confirm a reversal up but has a bit more to go, up thru 124^11 to 124^23.

Trying to climb out of the hole

Need a bit higher for confirmation

Crude Oil

CL fell back away from the 80.25 resistance, but I still lean to higher in a wave (III) prior to a more length consolidation. Support at 78.05 and at the 20 EMA on the 240-minute chart which currently is 77.70.

Expect higher targets to be reached

Lean to higher in (III)

Dollar Index

DX is back under pressure in the short term, but I remain optimistic in the medium term. We may need a minor new low to complete five waves down from late June.

One more minor low needed?

Euro

The small-scale wave two idea was pretty tenuous and was invalidated today. Now we need to allow the Euro to push to a new swing high past the August 5th high.

Still working on y of (ii or b)

Should get a new swing high

Gold

Gold slipped back a little today to just above the shallow wave (IV) target at 2493.05. Hopefully we get a clean five waves up from the August 5th low to a new high around 2550.00 to complete the pattern.

Expecting a new high

A wave (IV) nearly done

S&P 500 Futures

The S&P 500 stayed on plan today pushing past 5405.00 on toward the next wave [A] target range of 5465.500 to 5473.50. We will have to see if the reaction to the CPI is to blow past this target zone or kiss them in the early morning but start to leak lower after 10am in the start of a wave [B] retrace.

Near a good zone for the first segment of v of the ending diagonal

Wave [A] here or in the mid 5500’s