The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2024-08-21

Initial jobless claims and existing home sales Thursday morning

Bonds

ZB is on plan so far as it continues to push higher. I wouldn’t be shocked by a minor retracement but still think there should be a push to a new high over that of early August prior to the next larger degree of consolidation.

On plan moving higher

Could have a small retrace before higher.

Crude Oil

CL started to bounce in the morning but was held back by the 20 period EMA on the 240-minute chart at which point selling took it down to the next support zone of 71.55-71.30 which is the last chance at a higher low. I suppose a very bearish alternate count of ‘i-ii-[I]-due for a [II] up’ is a possibility if CL can’t get out of its own way.

Still like this as a [B]

Last chance at a higher low

Dollar Index

DX is on the back foot, but I still think this is a temporary condition. Would be bears need to see at least 101.75 recovered for first evidence of a possible reversal up.

Late in y of (ii)

Euro

The form in Euro up from the August 1st low looks like it can use one more down up sequence to have a five-wave form. Support at 1.1117 and 1.1081 for a low degree fourth.

A down/up sequence to complete the pattern

Working on a IV

Gold

Gold did poke under 2537.80 but wasn’t very convincing as it didn’t last long. I’m assuming another try at a high before a reversal.

Late in [V]

One more attempt at a new high

S&P 500 Futures

The S&P 500 has been quite stubborn about holding up. I think a retrace is due but acts like it is waiting for a catalyst.

Prefer lower before higher

A retrace before a push for a new high?