The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2024-08-12
Increasing Middle East tensions, PPI on Tuesday morning
Bonds
The dip lower in bonds looks fine on the daily chart as the retrace is holding above the daily moving averages, but dropping down to the intraday chart, it is not clear that the wave structure is complex enough and such may get a retest of 121^09 prior to pushing over 123^17.
Crude Oil
I’ve been thinking and I think I have the right form for crude but counting it too quickly. Now what does that mean in English? I still think it is a large WXY type pattern, but the April high is ‘[A] of y of (b)’ making the low early this month ‘(C) of [B] of y of (b)’ and now in [C] up. This better fits the strong rise today as on a an intraday chart it is likely working on a third. Next resistance at 80.25, 81.55, and 82.90.
Dollar Index
Relatively little movement in DX as it continues to hug 103.16.
Euro
Similar to DX here in the Euro, little movement today. Would be bears need a drop under 1.0911 to get something started.
Gold
After reflecting on what has been taking place in gold, I think I should treat everything since the April high as a wave [IV] and now in wave ‘(III) of [V]’ up. Intraday supports at 2493.05 and 2481.20 for wave (IV).
S&P 500 Futures
The S&P 500 didn’t move that much in the grand scheme of things today as it explored the recent range waiting for the econ data later in the week starting with the PPI on Tuesday morning. While nearing a possible target at 5405.00, I wouldn’t be shocked by an advance to 5465.50 in ‘[A] of v’ of an ending diagonal.
