The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2024-09-03
Bears coming out to play on the first trading day of the month
Bonds
Nice to see bonds come back alive today as I am sticking with my view that there should be another high to complete wave ‘iii of (c)’. Bulls should be firmly in control once 124^23 is recovered.
Crude Oil
Crude decided to set its wave ii early back on August 26th with a 3-3-3 form and has moved lower since then in a wave [I] which should be close to completion at the low today. Support at 69.50 and 68.20. First major retrace area to aim for at 72.70 with more typical wave [II] targets at 74.60 and 75.60.
Dollar Index
DX has spent a week climbing out of the hole but per the comment I made when discussing the weekly chart, I can’t rule out a retest of support prior to a more meaningful reversal higher.
Euro
The Euro has retraced fairly deeply but I’m not quite ready to proclaim the end of ‘y of (ii or b)’ but I will acknowledge that it is a possibility. Short-term, I think a bounce is likely and we will see if we get a new swing high out of it or a lower high.
Gold
Gold like other markets may have set a high but there is enough ambiguity to allow for another high. GC support at 2500.90 and 2483.50.
S&P 500 Futures
The bears certainly came out to play on the first trading day of the month with a pretty steady drop through the day. Everyone of course wants to know if there was a sort of truncation or said differently, is the high in? I can’t say with certainty that the market hasn’t rolled over but I’m reluctant to call the high being set. Yes, it was a pretty impressive drop on the day but in the big picture nothing out of the ordinary. Whether you call the retrace so far a fourth or a ‘b’ wave, this isn’t that unusual. Very short-term, S&P 500 futures may push a little lower to test 5496.25 or the 5488 to 5484 zone but counsel against selling in the hole. As for timing, both the 6th and 16th or 17th of this month look important.
