The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2024-09-25
Is the wave two high set in crude oil?
Bonds
Bonds slipped lower following the intraday cycle today and so far are trying to form a higher low. I’m sticking with the idea of the being part of a (B) wave for now though I suppose an alternative would be to put the (B) wave at one of the earlier bounce highs and treat this as ‘(C) of [A] of iv’ down in development.
Crude Oil
It is possible that crude set a wave ii high against the first target at 72.30. I had been trying to stay open to a push to 73.15 but the drop today decreases the chances of making it to 73.15. As long as CL stays under 70.50, it is probably best to assume lower before a bounce of any consequence.
Dollar Index
DX made the slightest of new lows today before nearly erasing the drop on Tuesday. Was that enough to set the low for wave (ii)? Maybe, but won’t know for certain till over 101.97.
Euro
Euro pushed within three ticks of the August swing high prior to falling back with some force. I’m usually not a fan of truncation but it happens, and this may be an instance of it. Now we will see if it can continue lower to around 1.11107 or 1.1068.
Gold
Not really much to add about gold as it didn’t do much today other than move sideways. I can’t rule out a bit higher while above 2671.45 but not a good place to be long.
S&P 500 Futures
The S&P 500 was under a little pressure after poking to a new high today but didn’t break the upward trend from the low of last Friday. The drop in the day session today has been reversed in the overnight as S&P 500 futures are on a fresh high as I type this in the early hours of Thursday. Thursday will be a busy day of economic data early followed by Fed speakers. Higher is possible but be careful up here. Next major overhead target range is 5830.25 to 5849.25. Would be bears need a drop under 5767.25 to get anything serious started.
