The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2024-09-09
Choppy with a positive bias in equities
Bonds
ZB had an inside day to Friday on Monday. I still expect ZB to push to a new swing high over that of August 5th to complete ‘[V] of iii’.
Crude Oil
I’m backing off the aggressive bearish count I had before and instead treating the current move down from August 12th as a ‘[B] of ii’ that is nearly complete which should result in at least a few weeks of up in wave ‘[C] of ii’ prior to rolling down hard in iii.
Dollar Index
The drop today to retest the last low could be good enough to complete the pattern as a cycle low is projected to occur here as well. Would be dollar bulls may want to see 102.40 recovered as proof of a reversal up.
Euro
The Euro is retesting the 1.1032 area again which is starting to put pressure on the wave IV idea, but the daily cycle does attempt to turn up from here. We will see if it results in a lower high or a minor new high.
Gold
Little change in gold as it still tests the daily moving averages and travels sideways. Bias remains up to a new high, but I have no idea how long it will take.
S&P 500 Futures
I had expected bears to work a bit harder on Monday but their attempt was lackluster. At this point, the low on Friday appears to be a [B] wave low and now early in [C] up. I would think that bulls push for 5507.75 and take a rest to see what the data on Wednesday and Thursday look like but we will see.
