The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2024-09-10
CPI on Wednesday morning
Bonds
ZB remains on plan as it moved up today to just short of a new swing high. Prefer just a bit higher but a good idea to raise stops or otherwise manage if long. Probably a little early to shop for a short.
Crude Oil
Crude followed the plan and made a new low pushing down under 66.16 briefly before recovering it. I’m penciling in the [B] low set but need this low to hold after the EIA numbers on Wednesday morning and push over 66.80.
Dollar Index
Not much to add on DX as it hugs 101.50. Until over 102.40, I can’t rule out a retest of support.
Euro
The Euro dipped under 1.1032 but recovered on Tuesday. I’m still giving bulls a chance to push higher though I don’t know if it will be to a new swing high or a lower high.
Gold
Gold attempted to rise up from the daily moving averages today but is still short of a new swing high. My bias remains up to get that fresh high while above 2500.00.
S&P 500 Futures
Interesting day today in the S&P 500 as it started the day session above the high from Monday but fell back in a retrace through the morning to make the low of the day just after noon against the 5442-20 region which was support on Monday. Next the market spent the afternoon reclaiming the lost territory and even making a new high on the day near the close. What now? Well, that depends on the CPI number in the morning on Wednesday. A base above 5508 likely results in a push for 5540 or 5558. A bad reaction would probably result in a move under the Monday low to 5362.75 or 5336.75. I lean to up, but we will see.
