The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2024-09-05
NFP Eve
Bonds
Bonds remain on plan as they rise again on Thursday, pushing for 125^31. Might pause against 125^31 or 126^07 but in general expect a new swing high over that of the August 5th high.
Crude Oil
Crude initially bounced on Thursday up to the 20 EMA on the 240-minute chart at which point bears took over and drove it down to a minor new swing low. I think it too risky to count on lower at this point but would be bulls need to recover 69.80 as proof that a bounce is starting.
Dollar Index
DX leaked a little lower today. Will it make a minor new swing low? I don’t know, but if it does, don’t expect it to be very deep.
Euro
Euro has done well for the last few days but nearing a decision point where it either continues to climb or sets a lower high.
Gold
Gold has been bouncing up from the daily moving averages but thus far is short of the high. Bias remains higher while above 2534.00.
S&P 500 Futures
Thursday started with a bounce but was unable to take out the bounce high of the day before. Following the bounce, bears leaned on the S&P 500 to push to a new low for the week. I thought there was a reasonable chance for the 5488 to 5484 to set a low but as I type in the early hours of Friday, S&P 500 futures are pushing lower. I would still prefer a recovery and push back up to a new swing high, but I don’t want to be pollyannish and not consider how things can start to go wrong. If bears hit hard after the NFP, we could easily see the market push lower toward 5410.25 to 5403.75 if not lower. If 5484.00 is recovered, I wouldn’t be in a hurry to fade the rise.
