The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2024-10-01
Geopolitical strife pulls crude up out of the hole
Bonds
Bonds came through the pop up today. The (B) wave might be in though higher is while above 125^00. If ZB falls under 125^00, lower targets over the next week or so are at 123^10 and 122^21.
Crude Oil
Well, crude did in fact rise as per forecast, but I think I need to modify my prior count a little. On the weekly and even daily chart, no problem, but when I drop down to an intraday chart, I need to make a change. Yes, I agree that what I have done here, allow for a very deep wave (IV) is unorthodox but technically doesn’t break the rule of overlap with wave (I). I’m assuming a retest or slight new high to that of September 24th. Could CL fail and set a lower high? Possible but have a minor positive bias while above 70.30.
Dollar Index
DX had a promising rise today but wouldn’t call it escape velocity till above 102.10. DX starting to wake from its slumber is probably a bad omen for equities.
Euro
The truncated high on September 25th is looking pretty good now. I’m penciling this in as a possible low degree wave three in development. Under 1.1090 leads lower to 1.1055.
Gold
Gold spiked up today on the geopolitical news but made a lower high. Possible that the gold high is in and that gold is early in a third wave down. The only problem I have is that it takes a fair amount of imagination to see a three wave move for wave (II) but I’m not going to get to hung up on it as I’ve seen this thing play out before. If I wanted to make the move more conventional or picture perfect, I’d allow for GC to move lower to around 2656.25 then bounce to a lower high to form a more complex wave (II).
S&P 500 Futures
Today was interesting with a quick 70+ point drop right off the open. Is the high in? Maybe, but would be nice to see futures under 5698.50 before really committing to that. I think there is a fair chance that we see 5719.25 or 5698.50 on Wednesday. What if 5738.25 holds? In that case, 5875, the high from July, could prove resistance on a bounce.
