The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2024-10-23
Gold falls back after a minor new high
Bonds
ZB slipped a bit lower today to test the top of the next daily support range. This is a very good place for anyone short to manage and an aggressive spot to initiate a long. The very first confirmation of a reversal is ZB above 118^26 and better at 119^09.
Crude Oil
Crude rejected the 72.15 resistance today but has recovered in the overnight as I type this. If CL retests 72.15, I’m less certain about the form for a wave (IV). Bears need CL back under 70.70 to get anything started.
Dollar Index
DX advanced yet again so as to push for 104.40. I still like a retrace but may have to wait another day or two.
Euro
While Euro moved lower today, there is a reasonable chance that today was the wave [I] low. Would be bulls need Euro above 1.0843 for confirmation.
Gold
Gold poked a new high early this morning just short of the 2775.00 target prior to a swift move down to test the lower wave 4 target at 2725.40 and thus is on plan. Imagine that Thursday is an inside day prior to a push to another high in ‘5 of V of (III) of [V].’
S&P 500 Futures
S&P 500 futures started off soft today and did nothing but accelerate once under 5877.50 followed by another push lower in the afternoon with the break under 5833.00 to make a run at the round number, 5800.00. Last, a late day rebound and a recovery of 5833.00 in the early hours of Thursday morning. As much as I think this this if very late in the advance from the early August low, I think everything from the October 14th high to the low on Wednesday could be a corrective formation which allows for another push to a high over the next several days. Bears of course hope that the recent decline was the start of a reversal and will be looking for a lower high to develop. As I just mentioned, I lean to the bullish option but be flexible.
