The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2024-10-10
Gold and crude bounce
Bonds
ZB slipped lower but bounced up off of 120^02 and recovered 120^10. Between the projected cycle low and positive divergence on the CCI on the 240-minute chart, I think there is a reasonable chance that [A] is complete. Bulls have more work to do of course, first step is to recover 120^24 and eventually must push past 121^18 and 122^03.
Crude Oil
CL broke over the initial resistance of 74.10, which was expected, today and pushed for the low end of the wave (II) target range. Over the next few days, we will find out if a lower high sticks. Bears need CL back under 74.10 for initial confirmation of a reversal and later under 71.40 to feel good about it.
Dollar Index
DX didn’t do much today forming a doji candle on the daily. This is expected behavior as I think a consolidation or retrace is due before moving higher.
Euro
As of last night, the low in Euro had more of a low degree ‘b’ wave look but with the push down today into the next support range, I think any bounce from here will be the first leg in a wave (II). Short-term bulls need Euro to push over 1.0968 and push for 1.1008 or 1.1047.
Gold
The good news is gold moved up as expected. The bad news is that it ran past 2648 which pretty much invalidates the immediate bearish count that I had put forth. I suppose there is a small chance that a leading diagonal down could work out if GC stalled and reversed down from 2670.25 but probably best to assume another high.
S&P 500 Futures
Pretty tight range overall in the S&P 500 today as there was a brief dip down to support around 5810.75 but recovered in the day session. It is interesting that the high from the 9th is still holding. Net, I can’t rule out higher, but I think it is foolish to count on it. Sell? Need proof first but I do think that surprises will be down.
