The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2024-10-2
The major equity indices trade in a range waiting for data at the end of the week
Bonds
Bonds stayed on plan pushing down to a new low under that of September 26th. Ideally, I prefer a little lower to test 123^10 or maybe 122^26 but technically this could be good enough. While under 124^20, my bias is lower but if recovered, probably should assume that wave ‘[B] of iv’ up is getting started.
Crude Oil
Crude went on to poke a new swing high before a quick trip down to test support at 70.20 and the 20 period EMA on the 240-minute chart. I’d say minimum requirements are now met for a wave ii high though it is probably a little aggressive to sell while above 70.20.
Dollar Index
DX on plan as it pushes up toward the first major test for bulls at 102.10.
Euro
Euro also on plan so far with what could be five small waves down from the lower high at the end of September which qualifies this as a wave III candidate. Should watch for a bounce from either here at 1.1055 or lower at 1.1019.
Gold
The good news is that gold did pullback this morning but fell short of reaching 2656.25 then took the path I laid out of bouncing back again to make a more complex wave two. I wouldn’t say higher is required but I’m assuming a better test of 2685.40 or 2692.60 before a reversal lower. For proof of a reversal, bears need gold to drop under 2641.20.
S&P 500 Futures
Today turned out to be a consolidation day. There was a brief poke under 5738 but a quick bounce out of it. I lean to thinking of today as a possible low degree fourth and due for a push down to at least 5719.25 though I like the 5698.50 level best.
