The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2024-10-08
A bad day for crude
Bonds
ZB is attempting to base around the 120^27 to 120^24 support zone but I still think it would look better with one more up/down sequence prior to starting a move up in [B].
Crude Oil
Nice drop in crude oil today but I wouldn’t call it a definitive reversal till under 71.40. Short-term, probably see a bounce for a few days at which point we will see if a lower high forms around 76.30 or 77.00.
Dollar Index
Little movement in DX on Tuesday. I still favor a retrace or consolidation over the next three or four days to form a higher low.
Euro
The expected bounce in Euro on Tuesday was pretty shallow but might be good enough if bears can force another low on the swing though I’m leaning to a bounce to at least 1.1048 before pushing to a new swing low.
Gold
GC on plan as it moves down in what looks like a wave (III). I’m assuming a little lower in gold to complete (III), say at least 2619.10 but more like 2604.20 or 2593.60.
S&P 500 Futures
The equity futures still are choppy without a clear pattern. It would be easy enough to say that the action from September 26th to the present is just corrective behavior and we should expect a break to a new high, except I think that is wrong. Could that happen? Yes. Am I comfortable making a forecast for a new high? No. I’ve see this type of thing before where you see choppy behavior at highs and it leaks lower until it breaks down. Net, I don’t want to be trapped here. That said, I fully understand that it isn’t easy to sell. Net, for most people the right thing to do is be patient and wait for confirmation of a break lower or a pop and drop. Yes, it’s frustrating but that is how it is at the moment.
