The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2024-10-24
S&P 500 bounces back
Bonds
Bonds showed some signs of life today after a quick retest of the 117^25 support level. ZB is now up into the initial zone to beat for confirmation of a reversal up. Next number to beat is 119^09.
Crude Oil
Crude is working to get back on plan as it fell after testing resistance at 72.15 today. CL did a decent job moving down today as it pushed down to the bottom of the inner bands on the 240-minute chart. Ideally CL will push down away from 70.70 to a new low under that of the October 18th low.
Dollar Index
Finally seeing DX stall. I expect DX to move much higher, but it could use a rest first. Need not drop much, a correction in time would be fine.
Euro
A nice move up in Euro today from the 1.0805 daily support level. Euro teasing pushing over 1.0843 which is a positive. Next step would be basing above 1.0843 and pushing to 1.0900.
Gold
Gold followed the plan well enough today with an inside day. I don’t think lower in price is required but wouldn’t be too much of a problem other than bring into question the degree of fourth that is forming. I’m currently thinking a low degree fourth followed by a minor new high prior to a more substantiative fourth.
S&P 500 Futures
S&P 500 futures were up in the premarket but retraced during the day session morning. There was a recovery in the afternoon but closed near the middle of the range which makes sense as traders are waiting for the Friday morning data before committing to the next move. I’m open to higher but as you are probably tired of hearing by now, we are very late in this move and to be fair, bears have lower highs and lower lows to back them up. Best for would be bulls is that futures hold above 5837.25 and push for 5875.25 and higher. Under that level invites lower prices to test 5809.50 or 5801.50. If the market does move under 5837.25, it doesn’t rule out a later bounce from support but does suggest that any bounce will more likely result in a lower high instead of pushing to a modest new high.
