The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2024-10-21
Bonds push lower, S&P 500 stays in a holding pattern
Bonds
The good news is that ZB broke under the low from October 14th and thus now has a five wave look down from the September high which it should if this is ‘c of (b).’ The next intraday targets down from wave ‘[V] of c of (b)’ are at 117^25 and 116^23.
Crude Oil
CL firmed up a little today but formed an inside day to that of last Friday. I’m inclined to treat the low from last Friday as a wave (III) low but there is a chance that it is the end of the first impulse down which I’m keeping around as an alternate. Overhead resistance for a wave (IV) at 70.90 and 71.80.
Dollar Index
DX rose today but is still trading around 104.00. I still like a consolidation prior to really pushing past 104.00 in a serious way.
Euro
Euro wasn’t able to get over 1.0890 on the first try and fell back to retest the 1.0844 support. I still like a bounce and the projected daily cycle low should help.
Gold
Gold isn’t cooperating, not because the pattern is complicated but because wave [V] is extending. The 2760.50 target is for a low degree third which should be tested. Next allow for shallow retrace prior to another high to complete ‘(III) of [V].’
S&P 500 Futures
The S&P 500 was tough on both bulls and bears today as the market failed to follow-through on either direction but had a relatively sharp intraday moves in both directions. The pattern isn’t very clear. I can make a case that form would look better with a drop under the Monday low in a tiny ending diagonal but face it, this is just sideways chop.
