The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2024-10-30

Equities erase the gains from yesterday

Bonds

A decent bounce attempt today in bonds as it initially pushed over 118^11 but alas could not hold above. I’m willing to give bulls a chance here to form a higher low and reclaim 118^11. If inclined to be long ZB, probably best to wait till over 118^11 is recovered to enter.

Early in a bounce or more

See if a higher low forms

Crude Oil

CL stayed to plan today as it pushed up through 68.08 and the 20 period EMA on the 240-minute chart. Next goal for short-term bulls is to press higher to test 69.44 which is the first target for ‘(A) of [II].’

Early in a wave [II] bounce

Working on (A) of [II]

Dollar Index

DX slipped back under 104.40 today. Probably need to have DX under 104.00 to have any confidence that a minor retrace is starting.

Start of a retrace?

Euro

Euro looks like it could be starting a retrace in a (b) wave. Not clear if that will manifest as a higher low or a new swing low.

Due for lower in (B) of [II]

Down in a (B) wave?

Gold

Gold pushed higher on Wednesday to approach the next target range of 2805.40 to 2809.40. Not clear that the targets will be hit. If long, probably a good idea to raise stops. If looking for a short, it is a good idea to wait till GC falls back under 2779.00 for confirmation. The next cycle inflection on the daily chart is on Friday.

Should be near the end of wave (III)

Very late in (III)

S&P 500 Futures

Things were looking good for higher after the bell yesterday, but S&P 500 futures failed to follow-through higher on the overnight move and began to fall, giving back the advance from yesterday. This is a negative development for higher, but I can’t rule out a save of some sort on Thursday or Friday. For now, best to assume lower to test 5810.00 or 5787.00 at a minimum.

Leaning to giving bears a chance to see what they can do

Short-term targets lower at 5810.00 and 5787.00