The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2024-10-14
Crude moved lower, equities drifted higher
Bonds
On the weekly chart, I leaned to thinking this drop is part of (b) but I’ve decided to hold off on that and keep the count as I have it. In a practical sense, the implications are similar. If ZB is unable to push over 121^26 and makes a new low, then I will call this ‘c of (b).’
Crude Oil
So far, the bearish forecast is holding up as crude moves down away from the bounce high of last week. Crude started the day under 74.10 which was the beginning of the end as it later cascaded lower and is now testing an initial target for a low degree third at 70.00. I wouldn’t mind if it pushed a bit lower to test 69.10 or so prior to a relatively mild bounce.
Dollar Index
DX is still grinding higher. I wonder if it attempts to test 104.00 prior to retracing.
Euro
Euro failed to get a bounce stared and leaked lower. I still think it looks overdone and would advise traders to manage if short. Next supports at 1.019 and 1.0890. Going long prior to some confirmation is a little aggressive, better to wait till back above 1.0956.
Gold
Gold slipped back a bit on Monday, but I don’t think it is anything to worry about. Forecast is for a new swing high over the next few days.
S&P 500 Futures
The S&P 500 set another high today as futures pushed up over the 5837 area overnight and coasted higher in the day session. There is some resistance now at 5917.25 that is being reacted to in the early hours of Tuesday. I expect lower to at least 5896.25 but probably lower to 5873.50 in the day session morning. I’m assuming there will be an effort made to hold supports on Tuesday and try to rise into Wednesday or Thursday so as to test 5941.00 or 5954.25. Just keep in mind we are very late in the game and my confidence in higher is not that high. Note that a new daily high will print an exhaustion signal on the Wave 59 9-5 study and the 240-minute chart is late in its own 9-5 sequence. It is also interesting that the next daily inflection on the cycle composite is on Wednesday.
