The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2024-11-04
The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2024-11-04
Election eve
Bonds
Bonds were up today after testing a wave ‘(V) of [V] of c of (b)’ target on last Friday. The form looks reasonable, but bulls need to get ZB over 118^05 and later 119^05 for confirmation of a reversal up.
Crude Oil
Crude advanced on Monday in what looks a low degree five waves up from the October 29th low which could work as ‘(A) of [II].’ Resistance at 71.85 and 72.50. If bears drive CL under 70.90, a (B) wave is probably in development.
Dollar Index
Not much action in DX today. It slipped a bit lower but is hugging the old resistance turned support at 104.00. Again, I don’t think the consolidation need be deep, sideways to correct in time would be fine.
Euro
It looks like Euro is still bouncing in the first stage of wave [II] retrace. An initial target was tested today at 1.0928 but that is still short of a 38% retrace which is often tested in ‘(A) of [II].’ Next targets up on the intraday chart at 1.0950 and 1.0976.
Gold
I’d say there is a good chance that the first leg of a wave (IV) in gold is complete and now working on a ‘B of (IV)’ now. For now, I’ll use 2775.40 and 2787.10 as potential resistance zones but will try to dial that in after the initial squiggles are in.
S&P 500 Futures
S&P 500 futures ran into resistance very early in the morning against 5771.0 and subsequently fell down away from it in the first part of the day session to test a support at 5724.75. Imagine that ES stays trapped by 5771.00 or 5973.00 on Tuesday in the day session as I think most wait to see how the election plays out. Over 5793.00 later on Tuesday evening enables a push to 5834.00 and possibly a new high. A drop down under 5724.75 would give the market a reason to test at least 5697.50 if not 5672.50 or 5644.00.
