The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2024-11-28

Thanksgiving Eve

First a programming note: I will be taking tomorrow and Friday off so no posts here or in the intraday Slack channel till Sunday evening. Happy Thanksgiving!

Bonds

Bonds are on plan with the push up over 118^05 today. I lean to higher to test 119^05 or the daily resistance at 119^20 before much of a retrace.

Early in wave (c) up

Working on i of (c)

Crude Oil

A small inside day today in crude oil. I’m allowing for a bounce into the end of the month as the intraday cycle is entering an up phase. If CL begins to spend time under 68.50, might get a swift move down to 67.50.

Lower high might be in

Early in [III] down?

Dollar Index

DX finally getting with the plan for a retrace with the drop today. Wouldn’t be surprised by a bounce from a test of 105.60 but imagine that is only the first leg of the retrace.

Finally getting a retrace started

Euro

Euro poked up above the 1.0568 level today but slipped back under it. I’d like a little higher for the ‘[A] of ii’ but this might be it.

Working on the first leg of wave ii

Late in [A]

Gold

Gold is moving sideways under the daily moving averages. It isn’t clear to me if the [B] is complete but I’m going to assume so while above 2619.60.

A developing wave ii?

The middle of wave ii?

Moving up in [C]?

S&P 500 Futures

S&P 500 futures did drift back today from 6047.50 but the previous hypothesis of a lower high doesn’t look operative at this rate since the decline appears more like a retrace. Will have to give bulls a chance at a new high while S&P futures are above 5975.25.

Trying for yet another high

One more try at a high?