The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2024-11-14
The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2024-11-14
Crude and Bonds try to climb out of the hole
Bonds
Bonds attempted to bounce today and did reasonably well almost making it to 117^05 prior to Powell speaking. After Powell started speaking, ZB began to retrace the gains made previously in the day. We will see if ZB can hold above 115^26 for a higher low.
Crude
CL firmed today and pushed up to test initial resistance at 69.15 after which it fell back and held above 68.15. I rate hugging the 20 EMA on the 240-minute chart as mildly positive. Next step is to base above 68.15 and push up over 69.15 in an effort to push for 70.60.
Dollar Index
Another up day in DX though it is showing some slowing against 106.80. You can make a case for a day or two of sideways/down followed by another high is needed to complete the pattern.
Euro
Euro moved lower today in the early morning than bounced. Not clear if the low today will hold or if 1.0490 needs to be tested before a better bounce attempt. There is positive divergence on both the 240-minute and daily charts with the RSI.
Gold
Gold poked under 2553.70 briefly today prior to a bounce attempt. Now we have to see if GC can make a higher low and punch up through 2583.75 as first evidence for a wave ‘ii’ bounce attempt.
S&P 500 Futures
S&P 500 futures failed to hold above 6012.50 which invited a test of the low from Tuesday, and after that failed, a push to the next large retrace based support zone at 5971.50. There were a couple attempts made at bouncing, but the feel of the market turned heavy after Powell began speaking in the last hour. I’m not assuming a push overnight to test 5953.50 or 5951.50 and then we will see if the market likes the early morning econ data on Friday. I’m assuming this is corrective for now but remember, we are very late in the advance from the August low. Things can go wrong.
