The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2024-11-11
The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2024-11-11
Minor equity correction on the low news day of the week
Bonds
Bond markets were closed today on Veterans Day, but the futures and equity cash and futures were open. Not shocking that ZB put in an inside day. Overall looks positive to me as they try to base above 117^09.
Crude Oil
CL had a bad day today but I’m not confident that the lower high in [II] has been set. The price that the last swing pushed into could be adequate in depth for a wave [II], but the wave structure seems a little too simple. I’m inclined to treat the low today against 68.15 or a retest of the October 29th low as a possible ‘(B) of [II]’ which implies a ‘(C) of [II]’ up next.
Dollar Index
I’m still inclined to think a retrace is required prior to the next major leg up.
Euro
I’ve been skeptical that the current move down in Euro is part of wave i and I think the action today bears that out as there are now three waves down from the November 5th bounce high which is corrective and in line with a [B] wave low. With the exhaustion signals on both the 240-minute and daily charts, I think a bounce is likely the next move. If the forecast for ‘[C] of ii’ is correct, the bounce should be sharp and be made of five parts.
Gold
Well, this is an interesting development. My idea for one last push up in gold is dead as there are now five waves down from the high which is an impulse and not something we should see in a fourth wave. The low today in gold is at a possible ‘(V) of [I]’ target, 2621.40, but it could extend to the next target while under 2640.20. Over 2640.20 makes the odds of a bounce in wave [II] go up.
S&P 500 Futures
I’ve been shopping for a low degree third wave high up off the November 4th low and we may have it here on Monday as the market was soft after the day session open. Until S&P 500 futures are under 6009.50, there is still a chance to make a new swing high. Under 6009.50 improves the chances of a low degree fourth wave.
