The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2024-11-05

Now for the FOMC on Wednesday afternoon

Bonds

I had thought the low against 116^13 could have been the wave ‘c of (b)’ low but I was wrong. After the election results began to turn more certain for a Trump win, ZB pushed lower to test the 115^22 support. I still think bonds are ripe for a reversal higher but need to see some proof. I like that ZB has almost recovered 116^13 as I type this in the early hours of Wednesday morning, but really need to push up over 117^09 to feel good about a reversal. Will see how ZB reacts to the FOMC statement later today.

At or close to a ‘c of (b)’ low

Form could be complete on this low

Crude Oil

I’m pleased with how CL is behaving. Crude tested the top target for (A) at 72.50 late on Tuesday and started to fall away from it overnight into Wednesday morning. I’m marking this down as the first leg of a (B) wave retrace. Watch supports at 70.47 and 68.70 to see if a bounce is initiated from those levels.

Starting a (B) of [II] retrace lower

First leg of (B)?

Dollar Index

While it is true that I have been saying that a retrace in DX need not be deep, I did think it would take more than four days so I’m skeptical that the wave ii is over. Either the move up in the early morning of Wednesday is completing wave i or it is a [B] wave high in a developing ii. Resistance at 105.30 and 105.80.

Not sure if this is i or a [B] wave type high

Euro

I’m treating this move down in Euro as a deep [B] wave for now though the alternate is that this is the wave i. There was a bounce from a [B] wave target at 1.0723 but not decisive as Euro has yet to push over 1.0785.

A [B] wave low?

A small bounce from the first [B] target but can’t rule out a retest or lower

Gold

Gold pushed lower overnight in what should be ‘A of (IV).’ This latest move dropped a bit under the daily moving averages before a quick pop up. I think it best to allow a bounce toward 2749.50 or 2762.70.

First leg of (IV)?

Due for a B wave up?

S&P 500 Futures

Well, the move during the day session over the typical wave four resistance foreshadowed the rise during the overnight. Now up to a Gann related resistance on the day session chart of 5953.50 but might try to push for a Fibonacci derived target just a bit higher at 5967.50 in the day session morning prior to a modest retrace. I can’t say I’m excited about higher but letting them try after the consolidation. Any move under 5868.25 would mean bears are wrestling back control.

ES on a new high

A small consolidation before a try at a new high?

As a reminder, NQ still has a lower high.

A low degree IV due?