The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2024-11-13
The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2024-11-13
Gold extends lower
Bonds
ZB had a bounce early but wasn’t able to push above 117^05. Yes, it did make a poke above but couldn’t hold it which precipitated a drive down to lower intraday support at 115^26. If bonds are to make a higher low, they need to do it now. Failure here invites lower to test the weekly and daily target down at 114^21.
Crude Oil
The plan going into today was to allow for a tiny new low to test 67.00 to complete ‘C of (B)’ and that is what took place. Promising doji on the daily chart. To confirm a reversal up in ‘(C) of [II]’ bulls need CL up over 69.15.
Dollar Index
DX just can’t be held back. Again, big picture I’m happy with this move in that I think DX has a long way to go. However, the short-term is being a pain in the neck as I am having difficulty dialing into a short-term count. The RSI is up in overbought territory now when the daily cycle is scheduled to turn down. Just ignore where I have placed ‘i’ on the chart, probably doesn’t belong there.
Euro
Euro just can’t get out of its own way. The count I have moved to here is probably more realistic than what I have above in DX. Late in a wave ‘i’ down from the August high. Next supports to watch are 1.0565 and 1.0542.
Gold
Gold continues to fall out of the sky. I’m thinking this is an extended fifth of the first major impulse down from the high. Next points of interest at 2554.75 and 2553.70. A good idea to lower stops if long but as we have seen, probably a little too early to buy for a bounce without seeing some proof first, like GC recovering 2583.75.
S&P 500 Futures
A choppy day in the S&P 500 today as it was up off of the CPI number but fell back in the early morning day session followed by a reversal up from a near retest of the low from yesterday. Can’t say the pattern is particularly clear. Enough ambiguity exits that I can’t be certain that wave (IV) is complete at the low from yesterday. I have a minor bias to higher into early next week but be careful.
