The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2024-12-30

Morning weakness reversed through the day

Bonds

Nice move up in bonds today as they finally spring to life. This looks convincing on lower time frames as ZB is now up over 114^01. A better confirmation of a reversal is recovery of 115^00 and later moving up through the daily moving averages.

Possible reversal up in the early part of (c)

Early in i of (c)?

Crude Oil

CL pushed up away from the 20 EMA on the 240-minute chart to punch up through 71.20 and should be on the way to test 72.30 on Tuesday.

Trying to break up out of the recent range

Should try to test 72.30

Dollar Index

Nothing to say that I haven’t said before in DX as it moves sideways hugging 107.98. I’d like to see lower but at this point probably lucky to test 107.12.

Can we at least get a tap of 107.12?

Euro

Similar to DX, Euro really just went sideways on Monday. I still like modest bounce prior to lower.

Should bounce a little

Can we at least get to 1.0558?

Gold

Gold dipped on Monday but held above 2600.95 so I’m inclined to allow for another bounce attempt. We will see if it can get over the daily moving averages this time to test 2678.70.

Allowing for a bounce

Due for (C) of [II] up?

S&P 500 Futures

Monday started out soft, dropping under 5958.25 to the next support at 5927.50 prior to bouncing back up to old support now resistance at 5988.00. We see some continued softness in the early hours of Tuesday as I type this with ES trying to hug 5958.25. I’m still partial to giving bulls a chance to save their bacon yet again while above 5897.50.

Bulls still have a chance at a new high

An ending diagonal would run the clock into early January