The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2024-12-05

NFP Eve

Bonds

ZB is continuing its advance after testing the top of the daily moving averages. Primary hypothesis is that this is the last leg of the first major impulse up from the November low. Overhead target range is 120^20 to 121^06.

A little higher in wave i?

Pushing for 120^20

Crude Oil

A modest down move today in crude as it starts to put pressure on a multi-month trend line. I give bears a minor win for the day with the push under 65.50 but they need to keep the pressure on.

Pacing across a trap door

Feels soft to me but bears need to keep at it

Dollar Index

DX under pressure today as it puts pressure on the 105.60 level. Would like to have that support fail and have a few days of follow-through to set a wave ii low.

Working on wave ii

Euro

Euro moved up today to the top of the recent range. I would like to see bulls keep going and press for at least 1.0624 if not 1.0722 before the end of ‘[C] of ii.’

Working on [C] of ii

Nearing the first target

Gold

Gold slipped a little today but firmed up again 2645.40 and recovered. I still await a push up to at least 2725.25.

Still working on wave ii

Due for [C] up

S&P 500 Futures

The S&P 500 futures finally made it to 6108 in the early afternoon and started to retrace. It would be nice to see a test of 6075.00 or even 6058.25 to complete a fourth wave and make a try for 6140ish into the end of the year. Can things go wrong? Absolutely, but while above 6058.25 I’m going to give bulls the benefit of the doubt and probably hold off from really turning bearish till under 6031.00 and I want to be bearish.

Should be pretty late in the game

Working on a fourth wave