The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2024-12-23

Next an early close on Christmas Eve and closed on Christmas Day

Bonds

ZB couldn’t stay over 114^21 on the first attempt and thus fell down to retest 113^20 today. It still looks late in a wave [V] to me but needs to first recover 114^09 and later 114^21 for evidence of a reversal.

Late in wave [V] of c of (b)

Might extend to 112^29

Crude Oil

CL traveled sideways on Monday. I’m open to higher while crude remains above 68.70.

Allowing for a bit higher

Can still try for 71.20 or higher

Dollar Index

DX is hugging 107.98 for now. Probably should allow for a test of 108.80 in a possible ‘[B] of ii.’

Near a [B] wave high?

Euro

Still looks like a [B] wave low to me in Euro but need to see time spent above 1.0466 for confirmation of a bounce.

Due for [C] of ii up

Bulls need Euro above 1.0466

Gold

So far, the bounce in gold hasn’t been able to stay above 2640.90. I certainly favor lower but I’m not sure the bounce is over.

Allowing for a bit more of a bounce

Seems a little shallow for a lower high

S&P 500 Futures

S&P 500 futures acting like the low from last week was a low degree fourth and rising to test or make a new high. I would think they reach at least 6073.50 if not 6079.00 before the next consolidation.

Rising in a fifth up from the August low?

Shouldn’t be much in the way to at least 6073.50