The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2024-12-16
S&P 500 climbs, crude slips lower
Bonds
Bonds slipped a little lower today to test 115^29 which is pretty much the last chance to form a higher lower. If they fail to form a higher low, I will have to call the recent rise ‘(C) of [IV]’ and this decline near the end of ‘[V] of c of (b).’
Crude Oil
Crude slipped a bit today, but I think it best to allow for a test of 71.10 while CL is above 69.55.
Dollar Index
DX basically traveled sideways on Monday. While the RSI is up into overbought territory, I’m open to resistance being tested at 107.42 prior to an attempt to roll down for a more complex wave ii.
Euro
There was a small bounce in Euro today, but I think it best to allow for a bit lower in a [B] wave. Supports at 1.0487 and 1.0444.
Gold
I forgot to post the gold weekly chart last night so here it is. I’ve been looking for a lower high to form and we may now have it. Need a drop under 2630.40 for confirmation.
I think bears have been doing a reasonable job in gold but wouldn’t call the reversal down definitive as of yet. Next step is to see a secondary lower high form and a break under the 2630.40 area mentioned above and 2600.95 on the daily chart.
S&P 500 Futures
S&P 500 futures rose on Monday but couldn’t make it over the high from last week, essentially sideways now for just over a week. I’m tentatively penciling this in as a triangle that should be near completion but as I have often repeated, things can go wrong as we are very late in rise up off of the August low. Futures have been falling after the day session close and now at an initial support of 6131.25. It is important for bulls to get to work here or no lower than 6114.00.
