The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2024-12-11
S&P 500 bounces back after the CPI
Bonds
Bonds stay on plan moving lower in what I think will turn into a higher low for a wave ii. Around the minimum for a wave ii at 117^24 though lean to a little lower. Probably should wait for 118^19 to be recovered if you want to get long.
Crude Oil
CL recovered the last few days of decline today as it now is nearing the top of the range it has been in for the past month. For now, I’m sticking with the wave [II] idea where we get a lower high to the high from early October. Short term resistance at 68.80 though I think it makes it a bit higher after an intraday retrace.
Dollar Index
DX is now back up near resistance at 106.97. A move down in a ‘[C] of ii’ would look nice now. Might be helped along by the ECB on Thursday morning.
Euro
Euro is down to the top of the first area for a {B[ wave to develop if it is to be a higher low at 1.0487. Next support at 1.0444.
Gold
With the RSI on the daily chart up in the overbought territory, we will see if the recent advance in gold stalls and sets a lower high for wave ii. Probably too aggressive to short without seeing evidence of a reversal like a drop back under 2750.90 at a minimum, preferably back under 2725.25.
S&P 500 Futures
S&P 500 futures followed the plan today pushing up from the possible wave (IV) support at 6044.00 into the 6100.50 resistance late in the day. We are seeing a retrace down taking place overnight as ES is now at the top of the typical area to shop for a low degree fourth at 6081.50. While there is room lower for a low degree fourth, I would start to wonder if something is going wrong if they drop under 6074.25.
