The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2024-12-26
Bonds firming up
Bonds
ZB dipped under 113^18 briefly today before springing back. Would be bulls need ZB up over 114^03 for first evidence of a possible reversal up.
Crude Oil
CL retested resistance at 69.80 before falling back away from it but I lean to higher to test 71.20 or more while above 68.70.
Dollar Index
DX has been in a very tight range for the last several days which is hardly surprising. At this point, I may have to settle for the shallowest of retraces, something around 107.12 perhaps.
Euro
So far only a slight bounce in Euro that is being held back for the moment by 1.0466. I would rate 1.0558 as a better minimum for ‘[C] of ii.’
Gold
Gold is finally bouncing a bit but so far, the bounce is under the daily moving averages. If this is all of the bounce, I probably will need to change the count as it is pretty shallow for a wave [II]. Instead of a wave [II], it could be a lower degree wave four. That would mean if gold made a new low on the swing, I would move wave [I] to the right.
S&P 500 Futures
A relatively dull day in the S&P 500 on Thursday. I wonder if there is an ending diagonal in development with the current swing high as wave (I) of the diagonal. I suppose bears are hoping for a lower high either set or nearby around 6127. I have a small bias for the bullish path but might be a good idea not to be in too much in a hurry to buy a retrace down as it could be relatively deep if a diagonal. I like the ending diagonal hypothesis as it would be a way to run the clock into early January.
