The Day Ahead: PM Edition 2025-01-01
Happy New Year!
I hope the holiday season has been good for all of you. Thank you for your support and wish the best for you and yours for the coming year. I expect it to be interesting.
Bonds
ZB gave back some of the recent gain on the last day of the year. Tricky as I can count the drop as complete and thus, we could be looking for a higher low to form. The alternative is that the low degree third and fourth need to be moved down and to the right which would need one more low to complete ‘[V] of c of (b).’ Net, late to short and maybe a little too aggressive to go long prior to some more confirmation of a reversal.
Crude Oil
The short-term outlook for higher in CL is working out but note that I think this is a relatively short-lived phenomenon. Either this is a lower high is some degree of wave two or part of a larger corrective ‘b’ wave. Reasonable to expect a try to test 72.30 or 72.50 while above 71.20.
Dollar Index
DX pushed to a minor swing high as it attempts to stretch for 108.80. As I have mentioned before, I would like at least a minor retrace from nearby but may have to just get over it and put ‘ii’ at the December low or maybe back is November and assume DX is subdividing up in a third.
Euro
As I mentioned above, I may have to just roll with some sort of subdividing taking place. I have illustrated one such way that may be working out in the Euro.
Gold
Gold finally is working on the next stage of a bounce. We will see if it can poke up through the daily moving averages on this try which are around 2656.
S&P 500 Futures
S&P 500 was under a little pressure on Tuesday as it gave up the gains from the bounce the day before. That said, I don’t think it means much as I still expect a climb up out of this area and a try to push up to at least 6061.50 and possibly higher if my ending diagonal hypothesis plays out.
